Abstract: Since the beginning of this year, the global and domestic economic environment has experienced a number of changes. Domestically, fiscal support for the economy has been reinforced, real estate and infrastructure investment has accelerated, but private investment has remained sluggish. Externally, major international organizations downgraded several times the growth forecasts of the global economy, suggesting renewed downward pressure on China’s export performance. Reflecting these recent developments, we revised our China macroeconomic forecasts for 2016. Compared with our published forecasts in December last year, we maintain our baseline projection of 2016 real GDP growth at 6.8%. We upgrade our forecast for fixed asset investment growth to 11.0% (by 0.2ppts), downgrade our export growth forecast to -1.0% (by 4.1ppts), and revise up our CPI inflation forecast to 2.4% (by 0.7ppts).

Full report ：WP No.20169 China Macroeconomic Forecast（Mid-year Update）.pdf