Abstract: This report presents our forecasts of China’s major macroeconomic indicators for 2016. Although downward pressures on growth will persist for a while due to overcapacity, profit deceleration, and rising NPLs, we expect that the number of positive factors will gradually increase in 2016. These supportive factors include the recovery of real estate sales, the lagged impact of macro and structural policies, as well as some modest improvement in external demand. Our baseline forecast for real GDP growth in 2016 is 6.8%, slightly lower than our expectation of 6.9% for this year. For next year our baseline CPI inflation forecast is 1.7%. We expect the current account surplus to be 2.8% of GDP in 2016.

Full report ：  WP No.201515 2016 China Macroeconomic Forecast.pdf